NFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 11, 2020: Proven model loving Dolphins, Chargers

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Washington quarterback Alex Smith made a miraculous comeback after suffering a gruesome leg injury in 2018 that nearly ended his career. In his first start since suffering that injury last week, Smith completed 38 of 55 pass attempts for 390 yards, a new career-high. The veteran has piled up an impressive 715 passing yards over the last two weeks and now will lead Washington against Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Sunday. Washington is a one-point favorite according to the latest Week 11 NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook.

The Bengals are 0-16-1 in their last 17 games on the road, but which side should you back with your NFL predictions and NFL bets? And which NFL spreads have value this weekend? All of the Week 11 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 11 NFL picks now.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,800 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.

It’s a sizzling 18-9 on top-rated NFL picks this season, already returning over $800. The model enters Week 11 on an incredible 114-73 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has examined the latest Week 11 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.

Top NFL predictions for Week 11

One of the top Week 11 NFL picks the model recommends: The Dolphins (-3.5) cover against the Broncos. Miami is 3-0 since it appointed rookie Tua Tagovailoa as its starting quarterback. The Dolphins have scored at least 28 points in all three of Tagovailoa’s starts, which has helped them secure wins over the Cardinals, Rams and Chargers. 

Miami’s defense has also played a major factor in its impressive 6-3 start to the season. In fact, the Dolphins are giving up just 20.2 points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. SportsLine’s model says that Tagovailoa will throw for over 230 yards and two touchdowns, while Miami’s defense holds Denver to just 21 points as the Dolphins cover in nearly 60 percent of simulations. The over (45) also has value since the teams combine to score 50 points.

Another one of the top Week 11 NFL predictions from the model: The Chargers (-8.5) cover at home against the New York Jets. This line opened at -10 and has moved down a key point, boosting L.A.’s chances of covering.

The model has considered that New York has struggled mightily on offense, ranking last in the NFL in total offense (266 yards per game) and scoring offense (13.4 points per game). 

With quarterback Sam Darnold (shoulder) out again, the Jets don’t reach 20 points in the simulations, opening the door for Los Angeles, which has averaged 29 points per game in its last six outings, to pick up a double-digit win. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert throws for well over 300 yards and two touchdowns as Los Angeles covers in more than 50 percent of simulations. Those numbers also help push the game over the total (46.5).

How to make Week 11 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 11 NFL schedule, and has identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,800 on its top-rated NFL picks

NFL odds, matchups for Week 11

Thursday, Nov. 19

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3, 57)

Latest Odds:


Sunday, Nov. 22

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-5, 50.5)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Football Team (-1, 46.5)

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers (-3)

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans (+1.5, 49)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland Browns (-3, 47)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+10, 46.5)

Latest Odds:


Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 49)

Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 51.5)

New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5, 46.5)

Latest Odds:


Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos (+3.5, 45)

Latest Odds:


Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings (-7, 48.5)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+7, 56.5)

Monday, Nov. 23

Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 48.5)